CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-09T07:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47469/-1
CME Note: [Preliminary] Potential weak CME arrival preceded by current sheet crossing. Characterized by an increase in B_total from 6nT to 8nT, a slight increase in speed, and a decrease in temperature. Rotation in magnetic field components is also observed. Possibly two overlapping CMEs visible to the E in STEREO A COR2 imagery and to the S/SW in GOES CCOR-1 imagery starting at 2026-07-09T07:53Z and 2026-07-09T08:23Z based on STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME(s) is an eruption from the area of Active Region 14485 (S10W34) starting around 2026-07-09T06:56Z to the SW in GOES SUVI 195 with additional eruption signatures to the NW of AR 14485 (S10W34) in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2026-07-09T07:08Z. There is a following eruption starting around 2026-07-09T07:48Z with associated brightening and dimming to the N/NW of the Active Region spanning roughly from W25 to W10 and S00 to S12. An EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 284 following the main eruption with post-eruptive arcades starting around 2026-07-09T08:53Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. These eruptions are also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304 as well as in SDO/AIA wavelengths following an eclipse.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T00:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-07-09T11:36Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 790
Longitude (deg): 24 W
Latitude (deg): 6 S
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: CME assw C2.7 flare at 09/0713 UTC from AR4485.
Space weather advisor: SW/RSp

Lead Time: 58.52 hour(s)
Difference: 2.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-09T15:59Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy